The Subtle Art of Beating Earnings Estimates: Why It Happens More Than You Think
5-8 minute read
Author: Tucker Massad
Published September 28, 2024
At first glance, the financial markets’ obsession with quarterly earnings reports might seem like a straightforward numbers game. Companies release their performance metrics, analysts estimate how those numbers will land, and the stock market reacts accordingly. But dig a little deeper, and you’ll find a carefully managed ecosystem designed to generate consistent “wins” for public companies. It’s no accident that around 70%–80% of companies beat their earnings estimates each quarter - and it’s worth asking why this happens so frequently.
Let’s break down how these estimates are created and why companies seem to be consistently outperforming them.
#The Mechanics of Earnings Estimates
Earnings estimates are crafted through a consensus of predictions made by financial analysts. These analysts study a wide range of data: historical company performance, broader economic trends, industry developments, and the company's own guidance (projections issued by the company). Firms like Zacks Investment Research aggregate the forecasts of over 2,600 analysts from 185 brokerage firms, covering more than 5,000 publicly traded companies across the U.S. and Canada.
Once these estimates are averaged, they form the consensus EPS (earnings per share) that the market watches closely. In theory, this consensus represents a balanced view of what the company is likely to achieve. But in practice, the estimates are often conservative.
#The Underlying Strategy: Why Are Estimates So Low?
Why, then, are these estimates consistently undershot? One reason is the inherent conservatism of analysts. No one wants to be overly optimistic and end up wrong. Predicting high performance can backfire, damaging an analyst’s credibility if the company misses those targets. Therefore, a buffer is built into the estimates—making it more likely for companies to “surprise” on the upside.
But analysts aren’t the only ones shaping the narrative. Companies themselves frequently contribute to this dynamic by offering lower-than-expected guidance. They know that beating expectations boosts stock prices, so they offer modest projections, setting themselves up to outperform. This tactic is commonly referred to as “sandbagging”—essentially lowering the bar so they can easily step over it.
#The Impact of Beating Estimates: What Does it Achieve?
When companies consistently beat earnings forecasts, they boost investor confidence and stock prices rise. This repeated cycle of beating estimates becomes a strategic advantage, offering companies protection against market volatility. It gives the impression of steady, reliable performance, even in cases where actual results might be lackluster.
However, this also creates a false narrative of outperformance. In many cases, companies aren’t truly overperforming — they’re just outperforming deliberately modest expectations. Consider that in 2023, nearly 80% of S&P 500 companies exceeded their earnings estimates. Does that mean these companies were all stellar performers? Not necessarily. It means the bar was set low enough that most of them could easily cross it.
#The “Game” of Expectations: How the Market is Managed
For sophisticated investors, the routine beating of earnings estimates might seem like an old trick, but it reveals an important insight into how the stock market’s performance is as much about managing perceptions as it is about reporting actual results.
Public companies and analysts are engaged in a subtle game of expectation management. Companies don’t just report their numbers—they manage their narrative. By keeping expectations low, they can ensure steady wins in the stock market. It’s a deliberate effort to create predictability in an environment where consistency is highly valued. Investors don’t like surprises—unless, of course, they’re the kind that push stock prices upward.
This game keeps the financial ecosystem running smoothly, offering investors a sense of stability and rewarding them with stock price increases. But it raises an important question: what are we rewarding? Actual outperformance or the illusion of outperformance?
#What Would Happen if Estimates Were Stricter?
Now imagine if earnings estimates were set higher—closer to the company’s actual potential. The corporate world would look very different. Companies would miss estimates far more often, leading to more frequent stock price declines. The market’s steady rhythm of beats and boosts would be disrupted, creating more volatility. Shareholder confidence would be shaken, and public companies could face increased pressure to deliver better-than-average results just to maintain their stock prices.
A higher threshold for earnings expectations could also force companies to think more carefully about their long-term strategies. In the current environment, the cycle of "underpromise, overdeliver" allows companies to keep investors happy without necessarily pushing for genuine outperformance. Stricter estimates would remove that cushion, making it harder to play the earnings game.
This shift could even have broader economic implications. As companies struggle to meet higher expectations, market confidence could waver, potentially causing a ripple effect across other sectors. Stock prices could become less stable, and we might see more short-term market volatility, which, in turn, affects investor sentiment and broader economic stability.
#The Broader Lesson: Managing Perception, Not Just Numbers
Ultimately, the cycle of beating earnings estimates isn’t just about financial performance—it’s about managing market perceptions. Public companies are more than just engines of growth; they’re participants in a psychological game that hinges on expectations. Analysts and companies together craft a narrative that satisfies investor needs for consistency and reliability.
For investors, this means looking beyond the surface of quarterly earnings reports. A company might "beat" its earnings, but that doesn’t automatically mean it’s in great shape. Understanding the mechanics behind these estimates allows for a more nuanced perspective, revealing that the financial markets often reward the perception of success more than true outperformance.
So, the next time you see a company celebrating an earnings beat, ask yourself: is this a story of true success, or simply a well-played game of expectations? The answer might change how you view not just that company but the entire market as a whole.